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In theory, sovereign wealth funds are superior long-term investors because of their ability to ride out short-term reverses. In practice, these funds still need quality long-term projections to exploit that comparative advantage. Rising powers must assess whether their strategic ambitions are worth the economic fallout of heightened tensions with neighbors and the developed world.


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But despite the bevy of powerful actors invested in knowing what the future of the global economy will look like, the quality of such forecasts has been extremely problematic. Even over the short run, both economic and geopolitical predictions have been far from perfect. The quality of long-range projections has been even worse.

McKinsey Executive Roundtable Series in International Economics: Sovereign Wealth Funds on the Rise:

The result is a market for lemons in predictions: an inadequate supply of low quality forecasts. This paper examines why the ability to forecast the next generation global economy is so difficult, and offers up a different lens to think about the global economy for Far-range economic forecasting suffers from multiple flaws: the cognitive tendency to extrapolate from recent trends, the incentive to exaggerate the accuracy of predictions, and the failure to consider the possibility of discontinuous shocks. The deeper problem, however, is that many of the key drivers of generational economic change have little to do with neoclassical economics.


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Long-range projections require some evaluation of non-economic factors. With so many uncertainties, accurate predictions about the contours of the global economy circa are impossible to develop in What can be done, however, is to catalog the known unknowns that will frame the way the world looks a generation from now.

The combined effect of these known unknowns will determine whether the world economy looks brighter or darker than the world today.


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This paper is divided into five sections. The quality of long-range projections has been even worse. The result is a market for lemons in predictions: an inadequate supply of low quality forecasts.

Eric Helleiner - Wikipedia

This paper examines why the ability to forecast the next generation global economy is so difficult, and offers up a different lens to think about the global economy for Far-range economic forecasting suffers from multiple flaws: the cognitive tendency to extrapolate from recent trends, the incentive to exaggerate the accuracy of predictions, and the failure to consider the possibility of discontinuous shocks. The deeper problem, however, is that many of the key drivers of generational economic change have little to do with neoclassical economics. Long-range projections require some evaluation of non-economic factors.

With so many uncertainties, accurate predictions about the contours of the global economy circa are impossible to develop in What can be done, however, is to catalog the known unknowns that will frame the way the world looks a generation from now.

Sovereign Wealth Funds: An Introduction

The combined effect of these known unknowns will determine whether the world economy looks brighter or darker than the world today. This paper is divided into five sections. The first section considers the poverty of current global forecasting. The second section explains the reasons why making generational predictions is so difficult. The third section considers the proper way to frame thinking about the global political economy of The fourth section discusses the known unknowns about the next generation economy.

The final section concludes.